Mortgage Market and Rate Direction for week of 6/13/11

This week is PACKED with market driving news releases and should prove to be significant in making a larger move than typical, in both good or bad direction, depending on the data.
The releases for this week are as follows...

1. CPI
2. Retail sales
3. PPI
4. Business Inventories
5. NAHB Housing
6. Empire Manufacturing
7. Capacity Utilization
8. Building Permits
9. Philly Fed
10. Michigan Sentiment

Probably the biggest 3 divers in this group are the CPI, PPI and Retail sales numbers BUT lets face it we are in strange waters right now and there is a lot of emotion and fear still driving the markets so dont get caught up in those alone. If Michigan Sentiment comes out weak or strong that could make a strong signal as well and Building permits can do the same.

Since none of this starts until tomorrow I think we will see today's trading in a fairly tight window awaiting the rest of the weeks potential storms. FNMA 4.0 Coupon in the 100.75 - 101.00 area. 10Y yields in the 2.95-2.97% area.

Stay positive, regardless of direction of rates, people still need housing and prices are EXCELLENT and affordability still at 50 year highs! 

If you have questions on rates. markets, investment property investing/strategy, or are looking to buy a home or refinance the one you already own in Colorado please feel free to call or email me.



David Shamansky
US Mortgages
8 Inverness Dr E Suite 260
Englewood, CO 80112
720-524-8020
NMLS#245170
Equal hosuing lender
* above commentary is my own and does not guarantee any rate or market direction. It is based from news and data both in the US and globally as well as what is pending to watch for.

Mortgage Market Direction 6/10/11

Mortgage Market Direction 6/10/11
The storm, before the calm, before the storm?

This week appears to have shaped up, especially last couple days, to be the storm, before the calm, before the storm.

We have had some serious movement, over the last 2 days, on very weak driving data (that's the storm round I). An overheated equities market showing a large 150(ish) point retracement from its folly or exuberance and unfounded gains yesterday and the 10Y yield is back down to the 2.95% mark again.

What does all this mean?

Likely today, and even Monday, could be the calming of the overreacted movements in the markets that caused some who did not lock correctly, to lose over 1/2 pt in pricing or an 1/8th (.125) in interest rate increase.

Next week we have retail sales and CPI numbers being the major market movers. If those results are what I believe they will be, as all else is weak right now, we should see another spark (storm round II) for interest rate improvement.

Have a great weekend and if you are interested in property investing in Colorado, have questions on markets or rates, looking to purchase a home in Colorado or refinance the one you have and take advantage of incredible low fixed rates please call or email me.



David ShamanskyUS Mortgages
8 Inverness Dr E Suite 260
Englewood, CO 80112
720-524-8020NMLS#245170
Equal housing lender

* above commentary is my own and based on techincaldata and news from both US and global markets and does not guarantee any direction on markets or rates.

Rates are in a testing pattern today 6/3/11

With the employment numbers including non farm payroll coming in below expectations today it sparked a massive +47bps gap up opening. However our last 3 weeks of almost non stop increase to bonds and treasuries may be at a check point before we see further rise.

I say this as the bonds with no additional news to change took an almost immediate -22bps swing back down and yesterday closed about 25bps below the low mark I expected to see.

Does this mean the rally for bonds is over?

No, it simply is a normal pattern that anything with a long trend upward or downward has points where the markets tests its direction to ensure it is moving properly.

So with that said I think today (also being Friday and these are normally not major market mover days) we trade close to the 101 range on the FNMA 4.0 and I still believe once we pass this test point we should see bonds rally upward.

Bottom line is... prices are low, rates are lower and NOW is an excellent opportunity for both first time buyers as well as move up buyers to get a lot of house for the money!

If you have questions on financing, products, rates investment properties or investment property strategy please feel free to call or email me.



David Shamansky
US Mortgages
1745 Shea Center Dr 4th Floor
Highlands Ranch, CO 80129
720-524-8020
NMLS#245170
Equal housing lender

*above commentary is from my personal review of market driving factors and news in the US and globally but does not guarantee any direction on rates and market movements

Mortgage Rates and Markets 6/2/11

Good morning readers and members.
The market opened up today with a slew of bad news. (should bolster lower rates)
here is what is driving the markets today...

Initial Claims: Actual 422K, prior 424K (consensus 413K) Continuing Claims: Actual 3711K, prior 3690K (consensus 3688K) Productivity-Rev: Actual 1.8%, prior 1.6% (consensus same as prior) Unit Labor Costs-Rev: Actual 0.7%, prior 1.0% (consensus .9%) Factory Orders: Actual -1.2%, prior 3.4% (consensus 1.0%)

• Initial claims are down a touch but actually up almost 10K from the consensus number
• Continuing claims are up almost 25K from consensus
• Productivity is up .2% (not a good sign as that ties directly into why claims are higher productivity is going up meaning more is being done with less people)
• Labor costs down .2% from consensus number (meaning incomes are falling a touch)
• Factory orders are WAY off over 2% from consensus numbers!

The markets are finally starting to react in patterns expected with this news. I think we still make significant runs upwards from here and tomorrows employment numbers should drive that home
.
Currently the FNMA 4.0 coupon is trading at 101.125 down slightly from its close yesterday.
I expect today's trading range to be between current levels (I believe we are at bottom now) and potentially 101.35. However in a longer trade range I still believe we will break through 102.


Lock advice

if closing in 14 or less - lock (likely this afternoon to get a little benefit from improvement)
if closing in 15+ days - float markets are poised for further improvement

If you have questions on rates, markets, improving your current loan, taking advantage of investment properties or investment property strategy please call or email me. If you are an AR reader member, as always fell free to call or email me.



David Shamansky
US Mortgages
1745 Shea Center Dr 4th Floor
Highlands Ranch, CO 80129
720-524-8020
NMLS#245170
Equal housing lender

* the above commentary is my own opinion based on news, events and indicators both in the US and globally and does not guarantee any movement up or down in the markets.

Mortgage rates cautious ahead of critical data

Mortgage Rates Cautious ahead of critical data

Good morning insighters...
Today opens flat after our long weekend with the FNMA 4.0 coupon opening 3bps under Friday's close and since has lost another 3bps. Fridays close was exactly in the range I called fro on Thursday and ended 25bps below the Thursday close. There is a lot of data to dissect this week but the biggest comes on Friday being unemployment. Here are the weeks driving news...

Tues 5/31
Chicago PMI
Wed 6/1
ISM Manuf.
Construction
Thur 6/2
Productivity
Fri 6/3
Employment

Now we see a slightly different pattern than recent trading and the FNMA coupon has not followed along the 10Y note path. The 10Y is at its early December 2010 lows with its yield at 3.06.
Based on Greek issues and the restructure that has to occur as well as data that reflects, we are not out of the woods yet, I believe the FNMA coupon will see some gains. What concerns me is we should have seen an open up gain but I do realize while its Tuesday we are only a few hours into this weeks session and a lot is left to come.

Lock Advice
if closing in 7-10 days - lock
if closing in 14+ float

Mortgage Rates and Market News 5/25/11

"Good Morning and here is the rate outlook for 5/25/11 abd what is driving the market today...

The bonds closed on a high point yesterday ending the day at +28bps and closing at 100.281 (FNMA 4.0)

Today opened with a small gap down of -9bps as the slightly worse than expected Durable Orders numbers were released and caution awaited the FHFA numbers and 5yr auction for later today. (this should have given us a slight improvement but with an approaching holiday and 5yr auction results not in traders are hedging)

These are the numbers from todays news with only item left of significance to be the 5yr auction.

MBA Mortgage Index: Actual 1.1%, prior +7.8%

Durable Orders: Actual -3.6%, prior 4.1% (Consensus was -2.0%)

Durable Orders ex-Transportation: Actual -1.5%, prior 2.3% (Consensus was .6%)

FHFA Housing Price Index: Actual -0.3%, prior -1.6%

After seeing these numbers I have to believe we should trend in an upward pattern (lower rates) but the main focus will be on the 5yr auction this afternoon. If it goes as expected or better we could hit levels not seen since end of November and would make that best of all of 2011, if not then we could see a sell off between 15-25bps.

I expect today's trading range to stay between the 100.15 - 100.50 levels.

The 10Y also followed suit and is at its 2011 lows yielding 3.09

Lock advice

If closing in 7-10 days - Lock

If closing in 14+ - Float cautiously

Mortgage Interest Rates Likely Choppy Today 5/24/11

Yesterday was mixed with a strong opening and the FNMA 4.0 coupon hitting its intraday high of 100.313 by 11a. After that it was a slow decline to close at its low for the day (not good). Most of this was derived from traders hedging for anything unexpected (this is really common during a week filled with a lot of market driving news).

Today I expect to be cautious/choppy as well but we do start getting some of our news released today with the New Home Sales report as well as the 2yr auction. I am not going to give much weight to the 2yr auction as the time frame is really not a market driver as the long bonds would be (the10y and 30y). However with that said traders will look at it to see if they can glean a direction of the market being bearish or bullish on bonds.

New Home Sales: Actual 323K, Prior 300K (consensus was 300K)

With the New Home Sales numbers being better than expected (but after reading numerous posts on AR I am seeing the same signs of life reflected in these numbers, so not a shocker at all) I think we trade close to where we are today ranging between 100.00 - 100.313. If the 2yr numbers are weak however we could see a sell off and our next logical stopping ground is at the 99.70 mark.

The 10Y is holding similar ground after hitting the 2011 lows of 3.09 Yield it ended at 3.14 Yield.

Lock Advice

If closing in 7-10 days - Lock you have very little to gain and a lot more to lose
If closing in 14+ days - Lock 60% Float very cautiously 40% We could see some rally back towards our highs and beyond but you have to factor the risk versus reward here.

Make it a great day and if you have questions on interest rates, market direction or investment property financing please call or email me.

David Shamansky
US Mortgages
1745 Shea Center Dr 4th Floor
Highlands Ranch, CO 80129
720-524-8020
NMLS#245170 Equal Housing Lender
*Above market news is not a reproduced (cut and paste of someone elses work). It is from my personal subscriptions and reading on US and Global market news and drivers as well as my insight on their likely direction but does not guarantee any movement in one direction or another.