Thursday, June 2, 2011

Mortgage Rates and Markets 6/2/11

Good morning readers and members.
The market opened up today with a slew of bad news. (should bolster lower rates)
here is what is driving the markets today...

Initial Claims: Actual 422K, prior 424K (consensus 413K)
Continuing Claims: Actual 3711K, prior 3690K (consensus 3688K)
Productivity-Rev: Actual 1.8%, prior 1.6% (consensus same as prior)
Unit Labor Costs-Rev: Actual 0.7%, prior 1.0% (consensus .9%)
Factory Orders: Actual -1.2%, prior 3.4% (consensus 1.0%)

  • Initial claims are down a touch but actually up almost 10K from the consensus number
  • Continuing claims are up almost 25K from consensus
  • Productivity is up .2% (not a good sign as that ties directly into why claims are higher productivity is going up meaning more is being done with less people)
  • Labor costs down .2% from consensus number (meaning incomes are falling a touch)
  • Factory orders are WAY off over 2% from consensus numbers!
The markets are finally starting to react in patterns expected with this news. I think we still make significant runs upwards from here and tomorrows employment numbers should drive that home
Currently the FNMA 4.0 coupon is trading at 101.125 down slightly from its close yesterday.
I expect today's trading range to be between current levels (I believe we are at bottom now) and potentially 101.35. However in a longer trade range I still believe we will break through 102.

Lock advice

if closing in 14 or less - lock (likely this afternoon to get a little benefit from improvement)
if closing in 15+ days - float markets are poised for further improvement

If you have questions on rates, markets, improving your current loan, taking advantage of investment properties or investment property strategy please call or email me. If you are an AR reader member, as always fell free to call or email me.

colorado mortgage rates

David Shamansky
US Mortgages
1745 Shea Center Dr 4th Floor
Highlands Ranch, CO 80129
Equal housing lender

* the above commentary is my own opinion based on news, events and indicators both in the US and globally and does not guarantee any movement up or down in the markets.

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