Monday, June 13, 2011

Mortgage Market and Rate Direction for week of 6/13/11

This week is PACKED with market driving news releases and should prove to be significant in making a larger move than typical, in both good or bad direction, depending on the data.
The releases for this week are as follows...
  1. CPI
  2. Retail sales
  3. PPI
  4. Business Inventories
  5. NAHB Housing
  6. Empire Manufacturing
  7. Capacity Utilization
  8. Building Permits
  9. Philly Fed
  10. Michigan Sentiment
Probably the biggest 3 divers in this group are the CPI, PPI and Retail sales numbers BUT lets face it we are in strange waters right now and there is a lot of emotion and fear still driving the markets so dont get caught up in those alone. If Michigan Sentiment comes out weak or strong that could make a strong signal as well and Building permits can do the same.

Since none of this starts until tomorrow I think we will see today's trading in a fairly tight window awaiting the rest of the weeks potential storms. FNMA 4.0 Coupon in the 100.75 - 101.00 area. 10Y yields in the 2.95-2.97% area.

Stay positive, regardless of direction of rates, people still need housing and prices are EXCELLENT and affordability still at 50 year highs! 

If you have questions on rates. markets, investment property investing/strategy, or are looking to buy a home or refinance the one you already own in Colorado please feel free to call or email me.

mortgage markets and rates 6/13/11

David Shamansky
US Mortgages
8 Inverness Dr E Suite 260
Englewood, CO 80112
Equal hosuing lender
* above commentary is my own and does not guarantee any rate or market direction. It is based from news and data both in the US and globally as well as what is pending to watch for.

Friday, June 10, 2011

Mortgage Market Direction 6/10/11

Mortgage Market Direction 6/10/11
The storm, before the calm, before the storm?

This week appears to have shaped up, especially last couple days, to be the storm, before the calm, before the storm.

We have had some serious movement, over the last 2 days, on very weak driving data (that's the storm round I). An overheated equities market showing a large 150(ish) point retracement from its folly or exuberance and unfounded gains yesterday and the 10Y yield is back down to the 2.95% mark again.

What does all this mean?

Likely today, and even Monday, could be the calming of the overreacted movements in the markets that caused some who did not lock correctly, to lose over 1/2 pt in pricing or an 1/8th (.125) in interest rate increase.

Next week we have retail sales and CPI numbers being the major market movers. If those results are what I believe they will be, as all else is weak right now, we should see another spark (storm round II) for interest rate improvement.

Have a great weekend and if you are interested in property investing in Colorado, have questions on markets or rates, looking to purchase a home in Colorado or refinance the one you have and take advantage of incredible low fixed rates please call or email me.

mortgage rates 6/10/11

David ShamanskyUS Mortgages
8 Inverness Dr E Suite 260
Englewood, CO 80112
Equal housing lender

* above commentary is my own and based on techincaldata and news from both US and global markets and does not guarantee any direction on markets or rates.

Friday, June 3, 2011

Rates are in a testing pattern today 6/3/11

With the employment numbers including non farm payroll coming in below expectations today it sparked a massive +47bps gap up opening. However our last 3 weeks of almost non stop increase to bonds and treasuries may be at a check point before we see further rise.

I say this as the bonds with no additional news to change took an almost immediate -22bps swing back down and yesterday closed about 25bps below the low mark I expected to see.

Does this mean the rally for bonds is over?

No, it simply is a normal pattern that anything with a long trend upward or downward has points where the markets tests its direction to ensure it is moving properly.

So with that said I think today (also being Friday and these are normally not major market mover days) we trade close to the 101 range on the FNMA 4.0 and I still believe once we pass this test point we should see bonds rally upward.

Bottom line is... prices are low, rates are lower and NOW is an excellent opportunity for both first time buyers as well as move up buyers to get a lot of house for the money!

If you have questions on financing, products, rates investment properties or investment property strategy please feel free to call or email me.

mortgage rates colorado

David Shamansky
US Mortgages
1745 Shea Center Dr 4th Floor
Highlands Ranch, CO 80129
Equal housing lender

*above commentary is from my personal review of market driving factors and news in the US and globally but does not guarantee any direction on rates and market movements

Thursday, June 2, 2011

Mortgage Rates and Markets 6/2/11

Good morning readers and members.
The market opened up today with a slew of bad news. (should bolster lower rates)
here is what is driving the markets today...

Initial Claims: Actual 422K, prior 424K (consensus 413K)
Continuing Claims: Actual 3711K, prior 3690K (consensus 3688K)
Productivity-Rev: Actual 1.8%, prior 1.6% (consensus same as prior)
Unit Labor Costs-Rev: Actual 0.7%, prior 1.0% (consensus .9%)
Factory Orders: Actual -1.2%, prior 3.4% (consensus 1.0%)

  • Initial claims are down a touch but actually up almost 10K from the consensus number
  • Continuing claims are up almost 25K from consensus
  • Productivity is up .2% (not a good sign as that ties directly into why claims are higher productivity is going up meaning more is being done with less people)
  • Labor costs down .2% from consensus number (meaning incomes are falling a touch)
  • Factory orders are WAY off over 2% from consensus numbers!
The markets are finally starting to react in patterns expected with this news. I think we still make significant runs upwards from here and tomorrows employment numbers should drive that home
Currently the FNMA 4.0 coupon is trading at 101.125 down slightly from its close yesterday.
I expect today's trading range to be between current levels (I believe we are at bottom now) and potentially 101.35. However in a longer trade range I still believe we will break through 102.

Lock advice

if closing in 14 or less - lock (likely this afternoon to get a little benefit from improvement)
if closing in 15+ days - float markets are poised for further improvement

If you have questions on rates, markets, improving your current loan, taking advantage of investment properties or investment property strategy please call or email me. If you are an AR reader member, as always fell free to call or email me.

colorado mortgage rates

David Shamansky
US Mortgages
1745 Shea Center Dr 4th Floor
Highlands Ranch, CO 80129
Equal housing lender

* the above commentary is my own opinion based on news, events and indicators both in the US and globally and does not guarantee any movement up or down in the markets.

Wednesday, June 1, 2011

Mortgage Rates to improve 6/1/11

Mortgage Rates to improve!

Good morning to all and happy Wednesday.

Overnight market was relatively quiet until this morning release of ADP payroll report showed the increase was a dismal 38,000 in April. That pales in comparison with the expected increase of 170,000 private payrolls (which was actually reduced down from initial expected number of 177k). Bonds jumped as did the 10Y by a staggering number after this. This morning gave us a gap up open of +22bps and treasuries are at +22/32 putting yields below 3% on the 10Y for the first time in almost a year!

Adding to this major shift is the manufacturing sector that's down with a big contributor from the high prices of oil and reduced orders and sketchy supply chain and housing still way off with no clear exit strategy in view and we have a very interesting dilemma. QE2 is still in place, and active as we speak, yet it is not bearing any fruit? Is this a recipe for QE3 and if so what is that going to look like and cost?
We are nearing the 4.0% mark for 30yr fixed rate mortgages and yet MBA posts a 35% decline in mortgage applications?

In a non interest rate topic I expect to see a SHARP sell off in equities and likely further improve rates but how much more can they lower seems to be the question?

I think we see today's trading range very high from this, maybe in the arena of 101.35-101.50 (FNMA 4.0 coupon)
I think we see the 10Y settle down now and close UNDER 3% keeping it close to this mornings levels of 2.97%

Lock Advice

If your loan is closing in 14 days or less - float until this afternoon then lock
If your closing is over 14 days - float (we have more improvement to come)

If you are looking to buy a home in Colorado, enter into investment properties, or seasoned in investment properties and looking for more call or email me.
We allow up to 10 financed properties, fix and flips and more.

David S
US Mortgages

*the above commentary is not a guarantee of performance nor a guarantee of interest rate movement. It is solely based on US and global indicators and indicates a likely direction rates will head.

Tuesday, May 31, 2011

Mortgage rates cautious ahead of critical data

Mortgage Rates Cautious ahead of critical data

Good morning insighters...
Today opens flat after our long weekend with the FNMA 4.0 coupon opening 3bps under Friday's close and since has lost another 3bps. Fridays close was exactly in the range I called fro on Thursday and ended 25bps below the Thursday close. There is a lot of data to dissect this week but the biggest comes on Friday being unemployment. Here are the weeks driving news...

Tues 5/31
Chicago PMI

Wed 6/1
ISM Manuf.

Thur 6/2

Fri 6/3

Now we see a slightly different pattern than recent trading and the FNMA coupon has not followed along the 10Y note path. The 10Y is at its early December 2010 lows with its yield at 3.06.
Based on Greek issues and the restructure that has to occur as well as data that reflects, we are not out of the woods yet, I believe the FNMA coupon will see some gains. What concerns me is we should have seen an open up gain but I do realize while its Tuesday we are only a few hours into this weeks session and a lot is left to come.

Lock Advice
if closing in 7-10 days - lock
if closing in 14+ float

Friday, May 27, 2011

Mortgage Rates likely flat to slight decline today 5/27/11

Mortgage rates likely flat to slight decline today 5/27/11

Good morning.

We had an extremely good day yesterday for rates with the FNMA coupon gaining +53bps for the day.
As I expected and posted don't panic from today's early losses as it is expected (profit takers and holiday weekend). The bonds opened today with a -22bps gap down open and since have retraced +6bps of that leaving the current FNMA 4.0 at 100.688 (still a very strong number). If you read my post from yesterday you will see I said expect a -15 - -25bps loss today so we are right in line.

No major news today, so I expect todays close to be right in line with those figures.

Have a great day and an even better long holiday weekend!

If you have questions on markets, interest rates, a loan scenario or strategy for investment properties please call or email me.

us mortgage interest rates

David Shamansky
US Mortgages
1745 Shea Center Dr 4th Floor
Highlands Ranch, CO 80129
Equal housing lender
*above commentary is from my own personal viewpoint and research on US and global economic data and factors and does not constitute or imply a guarantee of interest rate direction.