Tuesday, May 31, 2011

Mortgage rates cautious ahead of critical data

Mortgage Rates Cautious ahead of critical data

Good morning insighters...
Today opens flat after our long weekend with the FNMA 4.0 coupon opening 3bps under Friday's close and since has lost another 3bps. Fridays close was exactly in the range I called fro on Thursday and ended 25bps below the Thursday close. There is a lot of data to dissect this week but the biggest comes on Friday being unemployment. Here are the weeks driving news...

Tues 5/31
Chicago PMI

Wed 6/1
ISM Manuf.

Thur 6/2

Fri 6/3

Now we see a slightly different pattern than recent trading and the FNMA coupon has not followed along the 10Y note path. The 10Y is at its early December 2010 lows with its yield at 3.06.
Based on Greek issues and the restructure that has to occur as well as data that reflects, we are not out of the woods yet, I believe the FNMA coupon will see some gains. What concerns me is we should have seen an open up gain but I do realize while its Tuesday we are only a few hours into this weeks session and a lot is left to come.

Lock Advice
if closing in 7-10 days - lock
if closing in 14+ float

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