Fri the 13th is good news for Mortgage Rates

Good morning and happy Fri 13th Insighters!
Yesterday had a weak close near bottom of the range but was still over a critical threshold keeping the FNMA 4.0 coupon above the 99.80 mark, close was 99.906.
Upon anticipation and subsequent release of the CPI numbers today we have seen a nice retracement of losses and are currently at +34bps (100.25).
Here are what the numbers reported…
CPI: Actual 0.4%, prior 0.5% (consensus was .4%)
Core CPI: Actual 0.2%, prior 0.1% (consensus was .1%)
Michigan Sentiment: Actual 72.4, prior 69.8 (consensus was 69.5)
I like seeing the Michigan Sentiment numbers come in higher, however, I am much more concerned that if you look at the overall economy on a global scale you see very disturbing issues.
Portugal – 2nd straight 1/4 posting losses (GDP -.7%)
Euro – is in turmoil and (as most partnerships) when 2-3 of them pull the weight of all the others you can see why Germany wants to leave, as the union with Euro is hurting them as well as France (both are doing well and the Euro is hurting them both)
Greece – still a mess and combined with Portugal’s recession and issues in Japan and Middle East there is as much reason for concern as there is exuberance. This is partly why you see DOW in the mid 12,600 range and rates still low. (other obvious factors include the feds buying our own debt and keep rates artificially lower than they should be, to help stave off even deeper issues that would come from higher rates right now).
Anyway as far as todays trading goes I see us near top levels now and likely see today close between the 100.15 – 100.34 mark (FNMA 4.0)
Lock Advice…
If closing 7-10 days – LOCK we are near top levels no need to risk
If closing in 14+ – Float cautiously BUT (I dont see a lot of upside in 10-14 days to offset the risk/reward)
Have a great weekend!